tomorrow is not just another day
  Berichte, Arbeitspapiere, Ideen und Folien (auf Englisch)
About Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios in Strategy Work? PDF file, 8 pages, 500 kB, to download, click here concise note, with further links
How to create scenarios: some details PDF file, 9 pages, 560 kB, to download, click here a "quick-and-dirty" version, does not replace the books by Kees van der Heijden
Making Use of Scenarios PDF file, 4 pages, 560 kB, to download, click here Once you have scenarios, what can you do with them. This note answers the "so what?" question.
Delusions of Success Click here to link to the HBR Online page HBR article arguing for the use of scenarios in strategy work. It's the outside view the others advocate that is real scenario work
What makes global firms resilient? Click here to link to the HBR Online page In this July 03 HBR article, Daniel Yergin discusses why he uses scenarios with companies: "Oil companies know risk analysis isn't something you dip in and out of. You have to engage in it continually, so that you're not blindsided when the rules of the game do suddenly change. That's why we do scenario planning with companies."
Grasping the Future: Comparing Scenarios to other Techniques Click here to open the summary. The summary has a View button to see the full article. With the accelerated changes and innovations in technologies and business models, it has become more important than ever to understand possible business futures. This paper shows the advantages of scenario planning as compared to 20 other techniques. Builds on "Five Views of the Future" below.
Five Views of the Future Click here to open the relevant web-page Written by a consultancy, TFI, a very concise framework of how people view the future. The descriptions explain the rationale on which each view is based and list several methods associated with that view.
Reports
WBCSD Global Sustainability Scenarios Download the summary here, to see it put in context of other scenarios, click here (in German ONLY) Although created in 1997, still very valid and challenging. Introduced the world to F.R.O.G., Jazz and GEOpolity.
The full version is out of print, if you really want it, let me know, I can make a copy by hand.
Biotechnology Scenarios To buy the report, click here It develops three scenarios to help articulate the context for strategy development in biotechnology in light of public values and sustainable development issues.
Energy 2050: Risky Business To buy the report, click here "Drilling down" from the global FROG, JAZZ and GEOpolity worlds, this reports looks in detail at energy in these three worlds.
Turning CO2 Emissions into Assets To buy the report, click here Drilling even further down...
Creating Value in a Confusing World PDF file, 21 pages, 350 kB, to download, click here Report from a workshop held in 1999 in Berlin to create some signposts as to where we are heading
The Wizard of US PDF file, 62 pages, 550 kB, to download, click here Using the imagery of the Wizard of Oz, a little booklet that tells how to get conversations about sustainability going.
Scenarios for the Czech Republic 1998 Download the PDF file here here
Ideas
Trust and Service in a Transparent World (PDF, 400 kB) As long as we exist, we have struggled to eke out a living. Our frame of reference was scarcity — in fact it wasn't a frame, it as the Truth. But now, 1 out of 6 people on this earth live in material abundance, something that only kings and queens did in the past. What does that mean to the way we will do business in the future?
Sustainable Commerce (PDF, 400 kB) Commerce, it has been said, is the second oldest profession. Hence it is a good bet that even in a world of sustainability, there will be commerce – but under what conditions, in what form, and to what ends?
Using Sustainability to manage Connected Risk (PDF, 350 kB) Risk management in the past could get away with assuming the independence and self-limiting nature of events. Because the extent of our power and reach was limited. That has dramatically changed in the last 50 years. Now, our power reaches into the realms of culture and nature and creates connected, or systemic, risks. We need a new language, sustainability, to build the new policy frameworks for risk management at that level.
Presentations
Sustainability as the New Business Paradigm San Francisco, CA, March 2002 Slides and speech as PDF file, 120 kB, click here to download

Slides as PowerPoint file, 230 kB, click here to download
Scenario Planning in Strategy Development Short Hills, NJ, January 2003 Slides as PowerPoint file, 250 kB, click here to download
Developing Risk Management Tools for Sustainable Development in the Upstream Sector Amsterdam, February 2004 Slides as PDF file, 5,5 megaB, click here to download
and 2 System Dynamics papers
Forecasting turning points in shipping freight rates with J Randers, 2007 Download PDF file here
A comprehensive Theory of the Pathogenesis of Alcoholism with R Landeen and D Meadows, 1981 Download PDF file here

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